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Wells Fargo now says it pegs the odds of a recession at 40% in 2024. The Blue Chip Economic survey released last week echoed the bonhomie. More than two-thirds, 69%, of small business and 67% of midsize business leaders expressed optimism about their company’s performance. This week, members of Congress will learn the details and begin signaling whether the plan has the support of both houses. Meanwhile, in Davos, Switzerland, where many of the world’s leaders, business executives and others have gathered for the World Economic Forum’s 54th meeting, Chinese Premier Li Qiang delivered a bullish speech on China’s economic prospects.

Persons: –, Wells, “, ”, Wells Fargo, Sam Bullard, ” Bullard, JPMorgan Chase, Li Qiang Organizations: Federal Reserve, BCA Research, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, University of Michigan, Wells, Investment Banking, JPMorgan, Capitol Locations: U.S, Davos, Switzerland

Last Friday provided a split-screen view of the markets and the Federal Reserve. “Indeed, we look for the return of striking workers to add nearly 45K jobs to November’s payrolls. Wednesday brings the first measure of the November job market when private payroll firm ADP releases its monthly survey of employers. October came in at 150,000, a drop from the recent trend of around 200,000 jobs added per month. Consequently, we expect the post-meeting statement will keep the door open to the possibility of additional tightening this cycle.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, ” William Blair, Richard de Chazal, that’s, de Chazal, –, payrolls, “, Sam Bullard, November’s, Bullard, Wells Fargo Organizations: Federal Reserve, Spelman College, “, Futures, United Auto Workers, UAW, Hollywood, Wells, Labor

The week starts off with a bevy of unpleasant surprises for the markets and the economy but with maybe a hope of good news on the inflation front. “The decline in oil prices will feature prominently in explaining October's CPI and PPI reports. Core CPI likely slowed in October as well, with lower prices of new and used cars, lower airfares, and lower shelter costs all leaning the same way. PPI inflation likely moderated in October, too, with diesel prices following crude oil prices lower, albeit not by as much as gasoline. Powell’s comments were not anything new, but the timing seemed to suggest he was dampening down enthusiasm in the markets.

Persons: Moody’s, Mike Johnson, ”, Bob Doll, Republican Sen, Tim Scott of, David Cameron, Rishi Sunak, Stocks, Bill Adams, Waran Bhahirethan, ” Adams, Jerome Powell spooked, ” Powell, Oliver Rust, Sam Bullard, ” Bullard Organizations: U.S, AAA, Louisiana Republican, GOP, Senate, Crossmark Global Investments, Republican, Tim Scott of South Carolina, Conservative, Analysts, Comerica Bank, PPI, CPI, Federal Reserve, International Monetary Fund, Central Bank, “, Wells Locations: U.S, Louisiana, Tim Scott of South, London, Iraq, Syria, Gaza City, September’s, Israel, Washington

☆ US job growth probably slowed in October due to UAW strike
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The anticipated moderation in employment growth last month would also be pay back after September's enormous gains, the largest in eight months. The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is expected to show labor market conditions steadily easing, with annual wage growth the smallest in nearly 2-1/2 years and significant growth in the supply of workers. Manufacturing payrolls are forecast falling 10,000 after advancing 17,000 in September. Last week, the BLS reported at least 30,000 UAW members were on strike during the period it surveyed businesses for October's employment report. Wages gains would still be above the 3.5% that economists say is consistent with the Fed's 2% target.

Persons: Brian Snyder, Detroit's, Sam Bullard, payrolls, Veronica Clark, we've, Sung Won Sohn, we're, Brian Bethune, that's, Lucia Mutikani, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Taylor Party, Equipment Rentals, REUTERS, UAW, United Auto Workers, Labor, Federal Reserve, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Manufacturing, BLS, Citigroup, UPS, Finance, Loyola Marymount University, Boston College, Thomson Locations: Somerville , Massachusetts, U.S, WASHINGTON, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina, New York, Los Angeles

Do policymakers look back to last week’s report that the nation’s economy grew at a 4.9% rate in September, beating expectations? Or this week’s report on job growth for October due out on Friday after the Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday? On Wednesday, the jobs data onslaught begins with private payroll firm ADP reporting its monthly employment survey for October. Political Cartoons on the Economy View All 602 ImagesWednesday also has the Fed announcing its decision on interest rates. These include adjustments to the Fed’s new regime of higher interest rates for a longer period and the government’s fiscal situation that requires a greater level of debt issuance.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Sam Bullard, Wells, ” Bullard, ” Chris Diaz, ”, Louisiana Republican Mike Johnson, Johnson Organizations: Conference Board, Fed, Treasury, Federal, Brown Advisory, Labor Department, McDonalds, Apple, Dow Industrial, Louisiana Republican Locations: Louisiana

That is more than double the 2.1% recorded in the second quarter and a testament to the strength of consumers. But he warned that stronger than expected economic data, particularly as regards the labor market, could leave the door open to even more pressure to raise rates or keep them higher for longer. "Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth, or that tightness in the labor market is no longer easing, could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy." Complicating matters is that the post-pandemic economy has not gone according to script where higher interest rates almost always blunt economic activity and cause a marked slowdown in the labor market. “The labor market is still adjusting, if it ever does, there’s a question whether retail will ever recover completely,” he says.

Persons: ” Sam Bullard, Wells, Jerome Powell, Powell, ”, George Calhoun, Calhoun, Bill Adams, –, speakership Organizations: Federal, Economic, of New, Stevens Institute of Technology, University of, Comerica, “ Locations: U.S, of New York, Washington, Israel

With two wars, a rising price of oil and a shaky bond market, there is plenty of worry for the markets and economists this week, including a slew of corporate earnings reports and data on the state of the housing market and retail spending. Meanwhile, Russia has been pressing its invasion of Ukraine that is now a year and a half old. Last week ended with a surprise increase in consumer’s expectations of inflation in the University of Michigan’s sentiment survey. Where new home construction a few months ago was holding up the housing market, now it has slumped amid mortgage rates that have brushed 8%. The firm published its monthly economic outlook last week and did not include any more Fed rate hikes in the current cycle.

Persons: “, Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Sam Bullard Organizations: Hamas, University of, “, BCA Research, ”, National Association of Home Builders, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, National Association of Realtors, Economic, of New, Wells Locations: East, Ukraine, Gaza, Israel, Palestinian, U.S, Iran, Lebanon, Russia, of New York

Consumers fell prey to inflation that remains high, especially for life’s necessities like food and gasoline, according to the latest monthly survey from the University of Michigan. The consumer sentiment survey fell by 7% overall to 63 from 68.1 in September, while the current conditions reading dropped to 66.7 from 71.4 and the future expectations was at 60.7, down from 66 a month ago. Notably, expectations for the annual rate of inflation a year from now rose to 3.8% from 3.2% in September. “Assessments of personal finances declined about 15%, primarily on a substantial increase in concerns over inflation, and one-year expected business conditions plunged about 19%,” said Joanne Hsu, survey director. “Owners remain pessimistic about future business conditions, which has contributed to the low optimism they have regarding the economy,” said Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB chief economist.

Persons: ”, Joanne Hsu, Sam Bullard, Joe Brusuelas, Tuan Nguyen, NFIB, Bill Dunkelberg, JP Morgan Chase, Jamie Dimon Organizations: University of Michigan, Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Wells Locations: U.S, Washington

That was close, but in the end Congress found a way to avert a government shutdown. “That said, we still look for the gradual deceleration in labor market conditions to continue in the coming months,” Bullard added. Collectively, the three reports will show whether the labor market is slowing – and by just how much. The week will also reveal whether the markets have settled down following the aversion of a government shutdown and concern over rising interest rates in the wake of the Fed’s pause. “The continuation of the disinflation process suggests that the Fed may not need to hike interest rates again this cycle.”

Persons: ” Sam Bullard, “, ” Bullard, Jerome Powell – Organizations: Federal Reserve, Wells, Labor Department, Stock, BCA Research Locations: August’s, payrolls, Washington

Usually when a meeting of the Federal Reserve is on the week’s calendar, economists and market strategists focus on the decision to come. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has all but said policymakers would be on hold for this meeting as they digest recent economic data and consider the effects that 11 interest rate hikes have had on the economy. But the Fed will issue a new set of economic forecasts and projections about where interest rates will be over the remaining months of 2023 and in 2024, along with the unemployment rate. However, the LEI has been flashing a recession signal now for many months. “While the LEI continues to signal recession, incoming data show a resilient economy,” said Sam Bullard, managing director and senior economist at Wells Fargo’s corporate and investment unit.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Steve Wyett, Wyett, LEI, ”, Sam Bullard, ” Bullard Organizations: Federal, BOK Financial, Wells, Congress Locations: U.S

☆ Higher gasoline prices seen boosting US inflation in August
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"It's going to be a mixed picture, with headline inflation picking due to higher gasoline prices and core inflation remaining contained," said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina. "The Fed would be encouraged by the continued moderation trend in core inflation, but it's still too high." While that would mark the second straight month of a pick up in annual inflation, year-on-year consumer prices have come down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. In the 12 months through August, the core CPI is forecast to have increased by 4.3%. "Under our new forecast for CPI health insurance, we continue to expect core CPI and especially core services ex.

Persons: Sam Bullard, it's, Ronnie Walker, Goldman Sachs, James Knightley, Lucia Mutikani, Timothy Gardner Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, U.S . Energy Information Administration, CPI, Financial, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Ford Motor, ING, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina, U.S, I'm, New York

For months now, inflation has been steadily trending down to a 3% level after hitting 9% last summer. That will likely bring the annual rate to 3.6%. The Fed actually pays attention to a less well-known inflation metric and tends to focus on core inflation minus housing and those numbers are improving. We look for the monthly pace of core inflation to rebound to 0.2%-0.3% in Q4 and keep the annual rate closer to 4% than 3% through year end. The annual rate of headline CPI is also likely to remain stuck just above 3% through the end of 2023.

Persons: ”, Sam Bullard, Wells, ” Bullard, Janet Yellen Organizations: CPI, White, Fed, PPI Locations: India, U.S

☆ Slower, but still strong US employment growth expected in July
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is still expected to show a tight labor market, with the unemployment rate steady near multi-decade lows, though wage growth probably moderated. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 200,000 jobs last month, after rising 209,000 in June, according to a Reuters survey of 80 economists. Still, employment growth would be double the roughly 100,000 jobs per month needed to keep up with the increase in the working age population. Striking Hollywood writers and actors also likely had no impact on employment growth. Though annual wage growth remains too high to be consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target, it would be the latest indication of wage pressures continuing to subside into the third quarter.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Sam Bullard, Nonfarm, Carl Riccadonna, Sung Won Sohn, Veronica Clark, Lucia Mutikani, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor, Fed, BNP, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Supply, Labor Department, Conference, Finance, Loyola Marymount University, Citigroup, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina, New York, Los Angeles

☆ Slower US job growth expected in April; unemployment rate seen rising to 3.6%
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The unemployment rate is forecast to have risen to a still historically low 3.6%. "The labor market is slowly bending, but not breaking," said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina. "There is continued resilience in the labor market right now, but the trend is one that is continuing to see a decelerating pace of momentum." The service-providing sector likely accounted for most of the anticipated job gains in April. WAGE GAINS MODERATEAverage hourly earnings are expected to have risen by 0.3% in April, matching March's gain.

☆ Strong U.S. economic growth expected in fourth quarter, outlook darkening
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Retail sales have weakened sharply over the last two months and manufacturing looks to have joined the housing market in recession. While the labor market remains strong, business sentiment continues to sour, which could eventually hurt hiring. According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP growth likely increased at a 2.6% annualized rate last quarter after accelerating at a 3.2% pace in the third quarter. Trade, which accounted for the bulk of GDP growth in the third quarter, was seen either making a small contribution or subtracting from GDP growth. While the labor market thus far has shown remarkable resilience, economists argue that deteriorating business conditions will force companies to slow hiring and lay off workers.

☆ U.S. consumer confidence rebounds; existing home sales sink
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

"The outlook for consumer confidence in 2023 will hinge on the Fed's ability to deliver a soft landing on what could be described as a narrow runway." The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index increased to 108.3 this month, the highest reading since April, from 101.4 in November. While the survey places more emphasis on the labor market, the rebound in confidence matched a similar rise in the University of Michigan's sentiment index. The improvement, which mostly reflected lower gasoline prices, was in line with recent data showing consumer prices increasing moderately in November. But with the housing market in the doldrums, economists believe the labor market will loosen and unemployment increase next year.

☆ U.S. job growth likely slowed again in November; labor market still tight
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

But the labor market remains tight, with 1.7 job openings for every unemployed person in October, keeping the Fed on its monetary tightening path at least through the first half of 2023. Labor market strength is also one of the reasons economists believe an anticipated recession next year would be short and shallow. The labor market is still very strong and still very tight," said Agron Nicaj, U.S. economist at MUFG in New York. The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 3.7%, consistent with a still-tight labor market. "I still believe the economy tips into a short and shallow recession mid-2023, based on eroding labor market growth, but the probability of no recession is now higher," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York.

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